INDUS WATERS TREATY: INDIA'S PLANS, PAKISTAN'S PROTESTS

Why In News?

India issued formal notices to Pakistan to review and modify the six-decade-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signalling a shift from passive compliance to aggressive hydro-diplomacy.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)?

It is a transboundary water-sharing agreement signed in 1960 at Karachi by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru of India and President Field Marshal Ayub Khan of Pakistan.

The Treaty was brokered by the World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development – IBRD), which is also a signatory. 

• Its role is limited and procedural, mainly in appointing a Neutral Expert or facilitating the establishment of a Court of Arbitration when required.

It is widely regarded as one of the world's most successful international water-sharing agreements, providing a stable framework for managing the Indus River System for over six decades.

The Treaty governs the sharing of the Indus River System, comprising six rivers:

Eastern Rivers

• Ravi, Beas and Sutlej are allocated for the exclusive use of India.

• India receives about 33 Million Acre-Feet (MAF) annually, nearly 20% of the basin waters.

Western Rivers

• Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are allocated to Pakistan, accounting for approximately 135–177 MAF, or nearly 80% of the basin waters.

• India, as the upper riparian State, retains limited rights on the Western Rivers for:

• Run-of-the-river hydropower

• Domestic use

• Non-consumptive use

• Limited irrigation

• Navigation and fisheries (subject to Treaty provisions).

Unique Features

• The Treaty follows the principle of river partition rather than proportional water sharing, making it unique among international river agreements.

• The Treaty specifies technical design criteria for India's run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the Western Rivers, including restrictions on storage and pondage.

Institutional Mechanism

• It established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) consisting of one Commissioner from each country.

• The Commissioners are required to meet at least once every year, alternately in India and Pakistan, to exchange hydrological data, inspect projects and resolve technical issues.

Why India Kept the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in Abeyance?

Cross-border terrorism: India placed the IWT in abeyance, following the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack, stating that cooperation cannot continue amid continued cross-border terrorism.

National security concerns: India maintains that "terror and water cannot go together" and has linked restoration of the Treaty to credible, verifiable and irreversible action by Pakistan against terrorism.

Need for Treaty renegotiation: India argues that the 1960 Treaty no longer reflects present-day realities, including:

• Climate change

• Population growth

• Increased water demand

• Advances in hydropower technology

• Developmental needs of Jammu & Kashmir.

Pakistan's alleged non-cooperation: India contends that Pakistan did not engage constructively after India's January 2023 notice seeking modification of the Treaty and instead prolonged disputes through international mechanisms.

Dispute resolution concerns: India has objected to the simultaneous operation of the Neutral Expert and Court of Arbitration mechanisms, arguing that the Treaty envisages a sequential dispute-settlement process.

Optimising India's legal water rights: India seeks greater utilisation of its permissible rights on the Western Rivers and full use of waters from the Eastern Rivers through new infrastructure and storage projects.

Why is Pakistan Protesting?

Dependence on Indus waters: Pakistan receives nearly 80% of the Indus Basin waters under the Treaty, any disruption raises concerns over food and water security.

No legal basis claim: Pakistan argues that the IWT does not permit unilateral suspension and considers India's decision inconsistent with the Treaty.

Concern over "weaponisation of water": Pakistan has accused India of using water as a strategic tool and has described the suspension as the weaponisation of water resources.

Economic and agricultural concerns: Reduced or uncertain river flows could adversely affect:

• Irrigation

• Food production

• Hydropower generation

• Drinking water availability

• Rural livelihoods.

International diplomacy: Pakistan has attempted to internationalise the issue by raising it at forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and seeking support from countries including Canada for restoration of the Treaty.

Dispute settlement: Pakistan continues to support proceedings under the Treaty, including recourse to the Court of Arbitration, and maintains that the agreement remains legally valid.

Regional stability concerns: Pakistan argues that the Treaty has long been a stabilising framework in South Asia and that its suspension could increase bilateral tensions.

What are India's Plans?

Continue keeping the Treaty in abeyance until Pakistan takes credible and irreversible action against cross-border terrorism.

Renegotiate the Treaty: India has stated that the IWT cannot continue in its present form and requires a comprehensive renegotiation.

Maximise utilisation of India's water share by accelerating:

• Canal modernisation

• Irrigation projects

• Reservoir development

• Water diversion infrastructure on the Eastern Rivers.

Enhance hydropower development on the Western Rivers within India's permissible rights under the Treaty, including projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle.

Improve water storage capacity through new reservoirs, desilting, reservoir flushing and modern river basin management to optimise available water.

Strengthen river-linking and irrigation efficiency to improve water security in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Jammu & Kashmir.

Modernise treaty provisions to incorporate climate resilience, technological advances and changing hydrological conditions.

Assert sovereign rights while maintaining that future cooperation will depend on improvements in the bilateral security environment.

Major Challenges in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

Balancing Water Security and Regional Stability: India's decision to keep the Treaty in abeyance has intensified regional tensions, raising concerns over water security and strategic stability between two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Preventing Escalation of India–Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan's National Security Committee has termed any deliberate disruption of Indus waters an "Act of War", increasing the risk of military escalation.

Climate-Induced Water Variability: Rapid Himalayan glacier retreat, erratic monsoons, floods and droughts are making the Treaty's fixed water allocation model increasingly difficult to sustain.

Outdated Treaty Framework: Drafted in 1960, the Treaty lacks provisions on climate change, groundwater, environmental flows, ecosystem conservation and integrated basin management.

Collapse of Institutional Cooperation: Simultaneous proceedings before the Neutral Expert (NE) and the Court of Arbitration (CoA) created conflicting legal processes, weakening confidence in the dispute-resolution framework.

Reconciling Cooperation with National Security: India maintains that functional water cooperation cannot be isolated from cross-border terrorism, affecting the functioning of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC).

Limited Storage Infrastructure: India has not fully utilised its permissible storage and hydropower potential on the Western Rivers, while Pakistan faces inadequate reservoir capacity and high conveyance losses.

Trust Deficit: Persistent diplomatic tensions and declining bilateral trust have reduced opportunities for technical cooperation and confidence-building.

Way Forward

Structured Renegotiation of the Treaty: Invoke Article XII(3) to negotiate a modern framework reflecting current security, developmental and climatic realities.

Incorporate Climate Adaptation: Introduce provisions for environmental flows, glacier monitoring, climate-risk assessment and adaptive water-sharing mechanisms instead of rigid allocations.

Modernise Data Sharing: Upgrade the Permanent Indus Commission with real-time telemetry, satellite hydrology, GIS, AI-based forecasting and automated data exchange.

Integrated River Basin Management: Transform the PIC into a River Basin Organization (RBO) for coordinated basin planning, flood forecasting and drought management.

Improve Domestic Water Infrastructure: Build new reservoirs, modernise canals, reduce transmission losses and improve irrigation efficiency.

Streamline Dispute Resolution: Replace the overlapping Neutral Expert–Court of Arbitration process with a single, clearly sequenced mechanism supported by legal, engineering, ecological and climate experts.

Enhance Confidence-Building Measures: Resume technical dialogue, joint inspections, flood forecasting and scientific cooperation through the PIC when conditions permit.

Promote Benefit Sharing Instead of Water Sharing: Shift from a river-partition approach to cooperation in hydropower, flood control, navigation, sediment management and ecosystem restoration.

Address Security Concerns: Sustainable hydro-diplomacy requires addressing India's security concerns and creating conditions for restoration of bilateral confidence.

Adopt International Best Practices: Draw lessons from river basin institutions such as the Mekong River Commission and the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine for cooperative basin governance.

Conclusion 

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty strategically ties water cooperation to national security, emphasizing the urgent need for a modernized, climate-resilient, trust-based framework with effective dispute resolution to sustainably manage the basin for millions.

Source: INDIANEXPRESS